How Accurate are the USCIS Portal’s Case Processing Estimates?

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) regularly throws applicants and their families into a whirlwind of uncertainty with its unpredictable case processing updates. Tasked with managing the nation's immigration system, USCIS juggles millions of applications annually, each with its own complexities and priorities. In this article, we delve into the nature of USCIS case updates, the agency's efforts to boost transparency, and what applicants can anticipate during their immigration journey.

USCIS's Efforts to Enhance Transparency

USCIS has made strides in providing better transparency regarding the processing times of immigration applications. Recognizing the stress and impact of long waiting periods on applicants, USCIS launched its program to provide customers with estimated processing times through the online client portals. These estimates are based on data from applications processed in the previous month, offering a snapshot of the current landscape of case handling.

Accuracy

The most frequently asked question once a client sets up their portal is, “How accurate are the estimated processing times that USCIS has listed alongside each one of my pending petitions?” Since most of our clients are in the process of applying for US permanent residency based on family-based relationships such as marriage, we see how different clients receive varied estimates for the I-130, I-485, I-765, and I-131 petitions. Based on my observations, the estimates are not 100% accurate but provide a decent range of estimation. Think of it as a window, not a countdown, therefore, it’s more practical to take a plus or minus approach, i.e., if the portal says “2 months” for an I-130 adjudication, I would say that it can take plus/minus two months which makes the range 0-4 months. Below, I will address some of the common status changes and how to interpret them.

Understanding "Case is Being Actively Reviewed"

When USCIS updates a case status to "case is being actively reviewed," it typically indicates that an officer has picked up the file and begun examining it. This review involves checking for any missing documents or inconsistencies. If everything is in order, the officer may advance the case to the next stage of processing. However, moving to the next stage does not always result in an immediate update to the case status. 

For example, ten months into an I-485 adjustment of status case, the officer may pick up the file and set that status as “case is being actively reviewed,’ and notice that the I-130 has been approved. They may review the I-485 supporting documents and notice that the I-693 medical exam is missing. At that point, they may issue a Request for Evidence (RFE) letter requesting that the exam be mailed in within 87 days. 

In other cases, an officer may pick up the file because they have received a response to a Request for Evidence letter, where they had requested an English translation of the Beneficiary’s birth certificate. The officer, therefore, will review the sufficiency of the response and do one of the following: 

• Nothing–the officer may note that the RFE response is sufficient and then just walk away from the file;

• Approve the case–if the case has proceeded along all the previous proper channels and the case is ready to approve, they may issue an I-485 approval notice; or

• Deny the case–if the RFE response is insufficient, the officer could issue a denial.

Generally, this status means that the case has completed one of the review stages and is progressing through the system as expected. Try not to look into it too much as it’s impossible to decipher what is going on exactly. 

Variability in Processing Times

Processing times not only vary by the type of application but also by the specific USCIS service center or field office handling the case. Each type of application, whether for citizenship, a green card, or a K-1 visa, follows a different processing path, with some pathways naturally taking longer than others due to the inherent requirements and checks involved.

For instance, a green card application through marriage might move faster at one service center and slower at another, purely based on the current workload and staffing levels at each location. Similarly, factors such as legal complexities, the thoroughness of the application, and the need for additional evidence can all influence how quickly a case moves forward. Also, back-office priorities and resources are constantly changing. That is why you can live in Long Island City, NY for example, and have a friend who filed her adjustment of status (I-485) six months ago and just got her green card, but you’ve been waiting a year and still no green card in sight. 

“Case is Taking Longer than Expected”

Despite efforts to provide accurate estimates, it’s not uncommon for USCIS timelines to shift. As mentioned above, USCIS recalibrates its processing time estimates to reflect current realities and caseloads periodically. Therefore, these timelines are best understood as estimates rather than guarantees. The unpredictability can be attributed to factors including but not limited to increased application volume, complex cases requiring additional review, or shifts in agency resources. Any of those factors could contribute to an applicant receiving an update stating that "[their] case is taking longer than expected." This message, while potentially alarming, is a routine part of the process.

Applicants can have very different experiences with the timelines in their portal, as shown by various case studies that have been observed. In some instances, the estimated case processing time may not change for several months and, in others, it might fluctuate. An applicant, for example, reported that the estimated time until case decision jumped from 6 months to 0 days to “taking longer than expected’ and then back up to 2 months.

'No News Is Good News'

As the saying goes, "no news is good news." Sure, the silence can be frustrating and make you feel powerless, but it's often a sign that things are chugging along behind the scenes. USCIS won't poke you unless they need something – more docs, an interview, etc. For many applicants, the waiting period can be nerve-wracking but be assured that lack of updates often means that the case is progressing through various stages of the process without any issues.

The journey through USCIS’s immigration process is often long and filled with uncertainties. However, understanding that fluctuations in processing times are a normal part of this complex system can help alleviate some of the stress and anxiety associated with immigration proceedings. Remember, USCIS is not like the DMV where they give you a number and you know exactly where you are in the queue. In FY 2023, USCIS received 10.9 million applications. That’s nearly 30,0000 applications daily. 

Applicants are encouraged to exercise patience, as each step forward is a move towards achieving their American dream.

Should you or your loved one have any questions or need representation, please do not hesitate to call us, email us at info@khunkhunlaw.com or review other options to get in touch with us for an immigration consultation. We have represented many clients with successful results even with the most difficult set of facts.